Apr 28 2008
What is the next big thing?
Elias Bizannes wanted to know “What is the next big thing?” and tagged me and a few other people.
I reckon the “Next Big Thing” will be The Device Web / The Interconnected Me.
Part I - The Device Web
First, there will be a consolidation of the “Web 2.0″ applications as the recessional and market forces choose winners (there will be some carnage in The Valley). Thanks to the social tools that will likely make it through (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, etc), we now have networks of our friends, acquaintances and co-workers. All nicely annotated.
As more advanced handsets (iPhone, BlackBerry, etc) are released and become more prevalent, WiFi/WiMax/3G+ networks are more widely available and carriers break down the walled gardens, we will increasingly move our Web usage to the Mobile Web. This will be similar to the fast broadband revolution that happened at the beginning of “Web 2.0″. You’ll no longer see tables of geeks at the front conferences, typing away on their laptops. The audience will instead be typing away on their mobile devices. Connected Mobile apps will be big.
Twitter (or whatever it survives as) will go mainstream.
Add some Semantic Web goodness, and nascent web-database/applications will begin to appear. Knowledge will begin to be codified and machine-understandable (not just readable). Think about what happened when Google Maps came out, with local business listings.
Part II - The Interconnected Me
Now, here’s where it gets a bit Singularity / Orwellian:
We’ll begin seeing human-computer input devices beyond keyboards and mice. Emotiv and other companies will release direct human-computer input devices using brain waves. No more “type, type, type, click, click, click”. Simply think of the command and the computer will react.
Instead of the bulky headsets required today, in 10-20 years (2020-2030), they will be downsized to a device the size of a bluetooth headset (remember the first mobile phones?).
Natural Language recognition, processing and understanding will be widespread for a few languages (Hungarian will, sadly, not be one of them).
In the 20+ year timeframe (i.e., after 2030), we will develop human-computer feedback mechanisms. No longer will we need the screens of an LCD or mobile device, but will instantly receive computerised feedback directly:
- Want to know the nearest Thai restaurant (like you can’t just look and see one across the street, in Sydney)? Just ask the GBrain which will use the pervasive Mobile Internet and knowledge of your Social Web/Profile, and will query a Semantic Web service, returning the location, ratings and directions directly to you.
- Want to talk to a friend in Sacramento? Just think about them and SkypeBrain will check to ensure they’ve not blocked you in the social network and will dial them and connect you, brain-to-brain (hope you’ve got a good firewall installed).
- Want to know what your friends are up to? Just subscribe to their TwitterBrain feed, and you’ll instantly know when they update (seems like Psychiatry is going to be a big profession in the ’40’s).
Then all we would need to do is integrate Mechanical Turk….
UPDATE: Brad Howarth has a written post about Emotiv.
UPDATE: Harvard Business Online have an interesting blog post on this called The Business Opportunities in Mind Control. Interesting read.
